Guerrero: The rise of the MAGA Latino isn’t real, but it could be in 2024
It’s no secret that Democrats are gearing up to retake the House in November. But they’ll have to do better than they thought to win the seats they lost four years ago.
Democrats could lose dozens of seats, and Republicans could gain a few, to see the GOP take back the House.
If Democrats maintain control in the House, they’ll have a better shot at winning the White House in the next presidential election (though they’d likely have a tougher time getting a majority of Electoral College votes).
If Republicans maintain control of the House and Senate, though, they’ll get to make history and claim the first Republican president since Herbert Hoover — and the first GOP president since Teddy Roosevelt.
How will a minority party gain power?
Before you call this theory “crazy,” here’s the deal.
Republicans won the House elections in 2014 by taking over at least 40 seats. Democrats needed to take back one-third of those seats before they could win. If they hold on to their current seats by the end of this election, Democrats could pick up about a third of the House.
However, the blue wave election of 2018 was never going to be about the makeup of the House. Instead, the political pendulum swung so far in Republicans’ favor that they’ll take the House in the 2020 elections. But they’ll need to do a lot better to keep their House majority in 2024.
In the House majority
Republicans have a lot to do to keep their majority of the House in the next two elections even though they are projected to gain seats.
In the 2014 elections, Republicans took the House with the highest number of districts. In 2018, they won with the highest number of districts in the nation.
Republicans have done a great job at keeping the seats they lose to turn blue in 2018 and keep it all the way up to their current number of seats.
The midterm elections of 2014
In the 2014 midterm elections, Democrats had to win back five seats to win the House. But, they won back the House with a net gain of only one.